Tuesday, June 13, 2006

NASDAQ price action

The technicals breakdown below the high trendline triggered massive technical selling. The next major support is right at the close, unfortunately. I held my positions since they were so resilient the last week. However, there was serious deterioration across the market today. So many stocks broke down.

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The MM's saw the breakdown. They were probably shorting like crazy early to provide support at this level. The hope is to defend the long term uptrend. Now, my rear view mirror is much clearer than the view of ahead over the last few days. It seemed there would be a market bounce. However, it never materialized.

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This type of decline is rather ominous. Right now, I am very equity-impaired due to my stubborn refusal to accept a small loss, when the market signalled a sea change with the first big drop.

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The small hope, and it is increasingly looking unlikely, is the CPI number is less than or equal to what analysts are expecting in the pre-market tomorrow. I believe it's .04%. This results in a relief rally.

The market seems to be saying there is a strong likelihood it is a bad number. Consider energy costs rippling through the economy. If so, there will be new lows across the board. Much of the selling today was to be on the sidelines. Now the market has been wrong before. However, if it is too high, today is going to look like a good day by comparison.